Risk Management company Aon has released its 2014 Terrorism and Political Violence Map to help organizations assess risk levels of terrorism and political violence across the globe.
Produced in collaboration with global risk management consultancy, the Risk Advisory Group plc, the map indicates that Brazil was the only Latin American country to see its risk rating increase from medium to severe due to widespread and large-scale violent anti-government protests throughout 2013. The analysis indicates this unrest will likely continue in 2014, particularly ahead of the FIFA World Cup and the October general elections.
When looking at attacks on businesses by sector, the retail and transportation sectors were significantly affected in 2013, with 33 percent of terrorism attacks affecting the retail sector, and 18 percent of attacks taking place on the transportation sector. The retail sector includes venues such as public markets, which remain vulnerable to attack as seen last year in Kenya. Terrorism remains a variable threat in the Eurasia region, with Russia and Turkey the most affected by the threat through 2013. Additionally, the Winter Olympics in Russia, which will involve significant mass transportation moves, is seen as a potential terrorist target.
Despite some improvements in the ratings – eight decreases and just one increase – to the 37 country scores that cover Sub-Saharan Africa in 2014, Africa remains a continent of high political violence and terrorism risk, with 22 countries having high to severe risk ratings.
Empirically, the Middle East is the region most afflicted by terrorism in the world, with a 28% share of all terrorist attacks recorded worldwide in 2013. A new strain of Salafi Jihadism has emerged in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as evidenced by increased levels of terrorism. This is a cause and effect of the limited political recovery of post Arab Spring countries, and has contributed to widespread high-to-severe risk ratings across the region.
The data shows:
- 34 countries attained reduced country risk scores.
- Four countries attained increased country risk scores – Brazil, Japan, Mozambique and Bangladesh.
- In contrast with other regions, Europe saw notable improvement with 11 countries having civil commotion perils removed.
- Brazil was the only Latin American country to receive an increased risk rating.
- Overall country scores for Asia Pacific and Oceania region remain broadly stable with only four changes out of 29 countries and territories – South Korea, Malaysia and Samoa all attained reduced risk ratings – while increased military spending and geopolitical tensions in Japan increased the country’s rating.
- 33% of all high and severe risk countries globally are in sub-Saharan Africa.
Neil Henderson, head of Aon Risk Solutions’ Crisis Management Terrorism team, said, “Having unrivalled access to regional data and fact-based insight enables our global clients to begin planning ahead of these trends by performing necessary risk identification and consider preventive risk management solutions. This insight allows our clients to plan overseas expansion or international growth and supports them in their efforts to be resilient to a terrorist or political violence threat.”
Ian Nunn QGM, head of Aon Risk Solutions’ Crisis Consulting team, added, “Clients are naturally keen to penetrate key economic markets around the world, and seek highly attractive opportunities where they can maximize greater returns from their investments. It is important for businesses to recognize that this will also pose significant new political, security and operational risks that will have to be combined with tough regulatory and legislative pressures. A clear understanding of exposure and risk including the possible rapid change in the political and security situations within their operating regions is necessary to ensure appropriate mitigation measures are in place to manage such exposure. The Terrorism Risk Map is one of the key components of Aon’s global WorldAware Safe Travel Solutions to assist clients in understanding and managing global risk.”
The map measures political violence and terrorism in 200 countries and territories to help companies assess the risk levels of political violence and terrorism.
